Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
