Surfaces, Bowling Tools and Reserves – The Areas Where the Iconic Series Will Be Decided

Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|