Voting Begins in Holland as Surveys Suggest Potential Repeat Win for Geert Wilders

The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.